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Everybody knows the dice are loaded. Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed.    Everybody knows the war is over. Everybody knows the good guys lost.    Everybody knows the fight was fixed. The poor stay poor, the rich get rich.    That's how it goes. Everybody knows... Everybody knows the scene is dead    But there's gonna be a meter on your bed That will disclose    What everybody knows...    Everybody talking to their pockets. Everybody wants a box of chocolates    and a long red rose.    Everybody knows. Everybody knows. That's how it goes. Everybody knows. — Leonard Cohen, 1934-2016

I hope you understand I just had to go back to the island. —Leon Russell, 1942-2016

History foreshadows a GOP November win
Barbwire by Barbano / Expanded from the 2-16-2016 Sparks Tribune / Updated 2-19, 3-1, 3-8, 5-19 and 11-19-2016, 12-24-2019

President Donald Trump as Andrew Jackson? So opined a plethora of prestigious, highly-paid expert pundits on election night. The Barbwire warned of exactly that last March. Twice. And that ain't all. Read 'em and weep, pilgrims. Nobody knows nothin' By David Horsey, Staff Cartoonist / Los Angeles Times 11-9-2016 BARBWIRE SEZ the awesome Mr. Horsey's assertion that only the LAT/USC poll was accurate ain't necessarily so. Those with crystal balls shouldn't throw stones Barbwire by Barbano / Expanded from the 3-15-2016 Sparks Tribune Remembering the first female U.S. presidents Barbwire by Barbano / Expanded from the 3-8-2016 Sparks Tribune "Any system of prolonged political paralysis and failed liberalism vomits up monsters. And the longer we remain in a state of political paralysis — especially as we stumble toward another financial collapse — the more certain it becomes that these monsters will take power." — Christopher Hedges at NationOfChange.org 17 Oct. 2016. All the more reason to subscribe to Barbwire Confidential.

Diabolical Déjà Vu: Fire is the Devil's only friend
Barbwire accurately called 2016 presidential result 9 months out & stands behind 2020 prediction made four years ago
Barbwire by Barbano / Expanded from the 9-2-2020 Sparks Tribune / Expansions in blue / Updated 9-3-2020

The Mahatmas have spoken. The great Baltimore Evening Sun columnist HL Mencken originated what has morphed into "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public." And here we are.

On July 26, 1920, Mencken wrote this: "As democracy is perfected, the office of the president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be occupied by a downright fool and complete narcissistic moron."

CRYSTAL BALLS, PART DEUX. The working person's film maker Michael Moore was one of the few who predicted Czar Donaldov's 2016 win. But he wasn't alone and he was not the first. He made the call in July. Here's the Barbwire of Feb. 16, 2016:

History foreshadows a GOP November win
Expanded from the Feb 16, 2016 Sparks Tribune / Expansions in blue

The cycles of history predict a Republican president's election in November. If that doesn't motivate Democrats, nothing will.

Folks a lot smarter than me have long identified cycles of presidential and party power.

The best references are The Cycles of American History (1986) by liberal Kennedy historian Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., and The Politics of Rich and Poor — Wealth and the American Electorate in the Reagan Aftermath (1990) by conservative Republican Kevin Phillips.

"Phillips traces unbroken presidential cycles dating back to Thomas Jefferson," I wrote on 8 Nov. 1992.

"Each contains a 'minority interruption.' The 20th Century's blips on the screen were Woodrow Wilson, Dwight Eisenhower and Jimmy Carter," I noted.

In 1990, Phillips stated that "All six presidential cycles to date have begun with two decades of lopsided success by the newly ascendant party, and no similar domination has occurred at any other time."

Years before, both scholars accurately predicted a 1992 Democratic victory. Phillips also proved correct that the 1968 election of Richard the Rotten indeed foreshadowed The Emerging Republican Majority, as he titled his groundbreaking tome published right afterward.

Certainly, a lot of asterisks may be added to the above and new ones appear below. For instance, could Ross Perot have been the first non-major party candidate elected had he not gone psycho? Perhaps, as '92 was a change election.

The longest presidential cycle came with Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal, 1932-1968.

"All six of these eras began with watershed elections in which (1) the previous incumbent party was defeated and (2) a new alignment of party presidential voting — resting on a new coalition — was established, which kept its shape for at least 20 years," Phillips wrote in 1990.

"Interestingly," he added, "all three Republican hegemonies have produced a 'capitalist heyday' during the second half of the cycle."

The current cycle started with Bill Clinton in 1992, a scary 24 years ago. That's exactly the duration of Nixon to Bush the Elder (1968-1992).

CONTRA-ARGUMENTS. (1) The "minority interruption" has not yet occurred because Bush the Lesser demonstrably lost Florida in 2000 and was installed by the Supremes. (Meaning that the current cycle has not expired.) This reinforces the case for the real GOP aberration happening this November followed by continuation of the 1992 cycle in 2020. Can you say President Elizabeth Warren?

(2) There has arguably not been a liberal in the White House since Lyndon Johnson left after 1968. Jimmy Carter and his Democratic successors would have been moderate Wall Street Republicans in previous eras.

(3) In his 1998 book The Cousins' Wars, Phillips noted that in Britain and France, restoration of defeated dynasties led to collapse of their factions. He asserted that a Bush restoration could result in the collapse of the GOP. So far, he's right on.

(4) Donald Trump can crack the Democratic base with angry blue collar voters. Bernie Sanders appeals to the same group and can hold serve. Hillary Clinton cannot. (See what actress Frances Fisher told me about "NRA cowboys" / Barbwire 2-23-2016.)

BACK TO THE FUTURE. Last week in The Guardian/UK, Michael Moore noted how the 2020 presidential race has tightened up in key states.

“ 'The Biden campaign just announced he’ll be visiting a number of states – but not Michigan. Sound familiar?' Moore wrote, presumably indicating Hillary Clinton’s 2016 race when she made the error of avoiding some states that then swung to Trump.

“ 'I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much,' he later added.

"He continued to voters: 'Don’t leave it to the Democrats to get rid of Trump. YOU have to get rid of Trump. WE have to wake up every day for the next 67 days and make sure each of us are going to get a hundred people out to vote. ACT NOW!'

"Moore cited CNN (August) polling of registered voters to assert that 'Biden and Trump were in a virtual tie', including a poll that showed the pair tied at 47% in Minnesota. Moore said that Trump 'has closed the gap to 4 points' in Michigan." (Mike's from beleaguered Flint.)

PSYCHO CHAOS. Mayhem is Trump's M.O. Fomenting riots in the streets? That's how Nixon won in 1968. Who sez the prez don't read history!

More relief for the jobless? Hell, no. First, cripple the post office. Next, kill any more federal aid for renters. Homeless people will have a very hard time getting ballots. How do you forward mail to a van down by the river?

Nevada is trying to take up some of the slack. Gov. Steve Sisolak has extended the moratorium on evictions thru Oct. 15 and some state aid is available. Go to housing.nv.gov or call State Treasurer Zack Conine at (775) 684-5600.

FALSIES. I lament the fake news media falling into a rerun of the Pentagon conundrum. When the Bush dynasty was leading us into phony wars, the media covered "both sides" of the story: Anti-War vs. Support the Troops. Huh? Nobody was pro-war. Amazing.

Now, it's Black Lives Matter vs. Trump supporters. Not a freedom-loving racist in sight, apparently.

We are besieged by burgeoning dictatorship and besotted by false equivalence.

The Mahatmas prove right again: Be very afraid. Now get off your ass and move some votes this Labor Day weekend.

Take care of each other and be careful out there.

Andrew Barbano is a 51-year Nevadan, executive producer of Nevada's annual César Chávez Day celebration, first vice-president and political action chair of the Reno-Sparks NAACP, superannuated labor/consumer/civil rights advocate, member of Communications Workers of America Local 9413/AFL-CIO and editor of NevadaLabor.com and BallotBoxing.US and SenJoeNeal.org and DoctorLawyerWatch.com and Protect Our Washoe.org and ChantalCoalition.org/ He is a withdrawn-in-good-standing member of Culinary Local 226. As always, his opinions are strictly his own. E-mail barbano@frontpage.reno.nv.us. He has lived in both northern and southern Nevada during his half-century+ in the Silver State. Barbwire by Barbano has originated in the Sparks Tribune since 1988 and received its 10th Nevada Press Association award (6 of 10 first-place) at the 21 Sept. 2019 NPA annual convention in Ely. In 1996, he was nominated for a Pulitzer Prize for a six-month investigative series. His multi-media road construction zone safety campaign for Laborers' Union Local 169 won a first-place award from the National Safety Council in a nationwide competition. (Such ephemera and about six bucks will get you a Latte Mocha Cotsafracas Chingade at just about any Starbux worldwide, guaranteed.) His work has appeared on CNN, in The New York Times, The Guardian of London/UK and more important publications.

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10 the Hard Way!
Barbwire wins 10th Nevada Press Association award
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	Triangle Shirtwaist Factory owners Max Blank and Isaac Harris. Is not Mr. Harris eerily familiar to television junkies?
From the Emmy-winning opening slate of the blockbuster "Cheers" television series. Combined with its "Frasier" spinoff, it lasted 20 years.	The "shirtwaist kings" immigrated from Russia and made a fortune manufacturing "Gibson Girl"-style blouses. (Photo, "The American Experience"/PBS)	The Emmy-winning opening slate of the "Cheers" television series before the "slate" of creators is superimposed. Looks like Mr. Harris' dead ringer (at left) is having a bloody good time.

"Who ya gonna believe, me or your own eyes?" — Chico Marx disguised as Groucho Marx in "Duck Soup" (1933)
Back to the story of the 1911 Triangle Shirtwaist holocaust

Triangle tragedy recalled as requiem "The Fire in My Mouth," a new oratorio by Pulitzer honoree Julia Wolfe, premiered with the New York Philharmonic Jan. 24 By Michael Cooper / The New York Times 1-23-2019

SITE NAVIGATION TIPS: When all else fails, read the instructions (A favorite John Hanks aphorism I've been using for decades)

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Copyright © 1982-2020 Andrew Barbano

Barbwire by Barbano moved to Nevada's Daily Sparks Tribune on Aug. 12, 1988, and has originated in them parts ever since.
Whom to blame: How a hall-of-famer's hunch birthed the Barbwire in August of 1987
Tempus fugit.

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